The future of LED lighting industry

 LED lighting: the cost of investment timing and the policy-driven industry is expected to asymptotically
Philips Lighting in 2009 the global market size of 630-700 GM billion in 2010-2020 will average 6% growth. Output in general lighting in lighting and lighting applications account for about 70% of the share of light bulbs accounted for about 20%. This replacement bulb from the needs of some major, some light bulbs as the light source has been calculated into the lamp and lighting applications.
according to LEDinside statistics, in 2009 the global lighting market, LED lighting value of about 24 billion U.S. dollars, penetration is only 3.3%. Philips LED lighting is expected to universal in the global lighting market by 2015 the proportion will rise to 50%, 80% in 2020 .
market-driven factors: the cost of
LED from technology to its outstanding performance by the industry is generally considered ideal for the fourth generation light sources, LED light source in luminous efficiency, lifetime, response time, environmental protection and other aspects better than incandescent, fluorescent and other traditional sources.
LED luminous efficiency increased every year, has reached the general lighting applications. from Cree 2010, the latest published results, the current white LED luminous efficiency of its laboratory to reach 200lm / w , commercial chip to reach 160lm / w, and plans volume production in 2013 200lm / w of the LED. to LED lighting package module of the luminous efficiency of 160lm / w in mind, after the process of light from the light source to the loss of about 50%, light output The optical performance to achieve 80lm / w, still more than the current fluorescent 60-80lm / w of the light effects, and much more than incandescent 10-15lm / w efficiency. from the light effect on, LED lighting to replace traditional light sources have reached the standard. < br> current business-oriented products have been reflected LED light effect on the advantages, such as LED light bulbs with screw-type base design, and can be used to replace traditional incandescent bulbs, do not need to change the existing lamp and line, according to mount by the size and the size of E26 and E17 bulb type, 4W of the LED bulb can replace 25W incandescent bulbs, 6W to 40W LED bulbs can replace incandescent bulbs, 10W to 60W LED bulbs can replace incandescent bulbs.
technology, LED light effect has reached the requirements of an alternative to traditional light sources, LED lighting restrain the rapid spread of the major factors is its high cost. in the future development of LED lighting, the main direction should not be lm / w to represent the technological upgrading, but the $ / lm represented reduce the cost.
addition to technical and costs, national and regional government's positive attitude towards energy conservation, to stop and disable the incandescent product plans, is to promote LED lighting alternative to the important factors occur. Many developed about national planning in 2012 to stop manufacturing and prohibit the use of incandescent bulbs, LED energy saving and environmental protection, with its advantages, is the ideal alternative to incandescent lamps, once the appropriate technology and cost, is expected to be the policy of Governments support.
LED lighting industry, the timing of investment by analyzing the TV backlight
occurred in the field of LED for fluorescent lamps (CCFL) in the substitution process can be found in CCFL backlight LED price difference relative to the fastest period of decline, is the LED backlight fast rise time penetration occurs.
we believe, LED lighting alternative to traditional fluorescent and incandescent lighting will repeat the process. in LED lighting products with the traditional lighting products during the rapid decline in the price difference, LED lighting penetration rate will increase rapidly. In the LED industry, there is one from Agilent Roland Haitz Haitz proposed law is considered the LED industry, Moore's Law. LED commercialization since the cost per lumen ($ / lm) decreased by about 20% per year, and In recent years, data from the point of view, the brightness improvement and cost reduction has accelerated the trend.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy forecasts, the cost of white light LED package from 2009 lumens 25 $ / klm, down to 2 $ 2015 / klm, the average annual cost reduction of 30% or more, while the 2010-2012 average annual decline of nearly 40%. We think ,2011-2012 LED and traditional lighting will spread the fastest time down, LED light penetration produced during this period will increase by leaps and bounds. According to our calculations, the $ / lm is the unit of measurement in 2012 LED lighting costs will be reduced to about twice as fluorescent lamps, such as the relative fluorescent LED life span of about 2.5 times the calculation inside, will make about LED lighting in 2012 ahead of the total cost of fluorescent lighting. Therefore, we believe that LED lighting, large-scale alternative to the end of 2011, early 2012 start ,2011-2012 will be an important investment in LED lighting industry point in time.
present traditional lighting, including fluorescent, incandescent, halogen, HID, each general lighting revenues 36%, 23%, 16%, 13%. With the disabled in countries incandescent, fluorescent lights on replace incandescent lamps, LED lamps instead of incandescent and fluorescent lamps will be carried out concurrently. as commercial / industrial enterprises are more sensitive to electricity costs, the government enterprises become more stringent energy conservation requirements and other reasons, commercial / industrial areas of Use energy-efficient lighting products more positive performance. We believe that LED lighting alternative on the same process will repeat this, LED lighting alternative to first in the commercial / industrial place, get a good role model, and then gradually spread to the home lighting area.
LED lighting industry chain analysis
LED lighting industry chain and the first half of the same chain of traditional LED applications, but the latter part of the LED lighting module (source), and LED lighting production extension. industrial chain changes competition brought about changes in the upstream business down the walk, walk up the upstream and downstream enterprises, to accelerate the pace of vertical integration. dramatic changes in the industrial chain, LED lighting chain, we focus on two aspects of packaging and applications. Package : modular production is the future trend.
LED packages connected to the LED chip upstream and downstream applications, lighting, LED light bulbs that affect the determinants of luminous efficiency, but also determine the cost of LED light bulbs the main components. LED Lighting packaging technology for high level, increased barriers to entry. Unlike traditional applications support package (including Piranha package), and SMD packages (SMD), LED lighting power required is greater and therefore the density of multi-chip package high, the application of heat generated when a large, poor heat dissipation problem of the rapid aging of phosphors result, leading to reduced product life, heat dissipation is important to solve technical problems.
COB multi-chip package, aluminum oxide or nitride aluminum plate to a smaller size, high packing density of dozens or hundreds of packages LED chips, the internal line is the hybrid type, that is, there are several chips in series, there are several road parallel to the manufacturers The production process is very demanding. Therefore, the LED packaging for lighting applications, for packaging companies a higher level of technology required to improve the barriers to entry.
modular package will be part of the development trend. We believe that , LED lighting products, consumer goods, positioning should not be optional, and should belong to the mass consumer goods, LED light source modular, easy to mass production, is to reduce the cost of LED lighting, efficient way, for non-special-purpose general lighting, LED modules production approach has advantages. Therefore, LED lighting, modular package is a trend. similar to the standard DRAM white LED packages / modules will appear to the lower reaches of the LED lamp / lighting manufacturers large supply.
LED lamp / lamp and LED lighting manufacturers new entrants into the LED industry chain. LED lighting module by installing a power supply circuit, through the optical design, lighting products can be produced, there will be influx of new entrants. but the LED lighting module to the LED lighting assembly of the production process is not a simple process, LED lighting design involves the power management and conversion, drive circuit, control and sensing, thermal management, optical mixing and diffusion, optical extraction and many other factors, the threshold than the industry higher expectations in the current development situation of the initial product quality varied very likely to occur. We believe that the chain began to cut into the traditional LED lighting company, with its accumulation in the field of optical design, LED lighting in the possession of certain advantages links such as Zhejiang Sunshine, really bright, NVC lighting.
channels also apply to the law is king. LED lighting business development there are two paths, one manufacturer, and second channels. For the LED light bulb / light manufacturing enterprises large-scale low-cost manufacturing is the most important competitive force, which is the advantage of Chinese companies, China is already a lighting manufacturing country, but most of the export products in the OEM. for control of the LED own brand and channel application companies, has the advantage of customer and market the company's profitability has significantly improved, the channel for the king's law also applies to LED lighting applications. manufacturing and channel these two paths are not contradictory, with mass production capability and early distribution channel LED lighting applications in the LED lighting business to occupy the process of alternative opportunities.
LED lighting industry, we believe that investment logic
, LED lighting, large-scale alternative to the end of 2011, early 2012 start 2011-2012 is the LED lighting industry will be an important investment timing. LED lighting products, replacement will be the first in the commercial / industrial place, get a good role model, and then gradually spread to household lighting. We are optimistic about the LED lighting industry chain of high-end packaging and downstream applications in enterprises. optimistic about our long-term development of LED industry in the next 5 years is the golden period of development of the industry to maintain the industry's package, high-brightness high-power packaging technology has gained a certain middle packaging company, we believe that LED lighting modular packaging field is the development trend of the future, we will have the ability to tap the business from the existing packaging and lighting to LED lighting modules Group companies to upgrade.
downstream applications: the LED downstream applications, we choose a certain size, with their own brand of LED lighting manufacturer, size and channel competition in the downstream of its advantage to win. LED lighting business enterprises from the traditional solid-state lighting based on the expansion to bring the valuation of the increase, while its position in the industry chain closer to end consumers, but also in the electronic components industry, the trend decline in the overall boom of the ideal defensive species, such as Zhejiang Sunshine, NVC lighting. (Source: China Securities Journal, Industrial Securities)
LED industry
next tested the first half of 2009 alone, China's LED production has more than 200 billion investment, and its tendency to expand continues, many never before listed companies involved in LED industry, also joined them, such as the recent announcement just Han's Laser, Furi Electronics, hoping to catch the train. Over the years, however, A-share listed companies are often stuck in Listed company immediately ; cups , the state has limited both industries continue to expand. then LED will repeat it? Some analysts believe, LED huge market space, the current production capacity from 3 to 5 years of the next term, is not enough, but is means that as long as in the LED production will be able to profit? The answer of course is no. analysts said, is now LED's Warring States Period, fight warlords, not all in the LED industry, the company will embark on the broad road, perhaps next to pies trap.
LED high-speed rush of listed companies chariot
know since when, LED (light emitting diode) that people began to greet the eye. With the LED technology more and more widely, the rapid rise of a number of LED business , LED also known as LED plate adverse economic strength, LED concept of the collective is activated, BDO Runda, shares the same side, the Year optoelectronics rebound before the Spring Festival have hit a new high. LED is developing rapidly so that most of the industry called for How the status of the industry?
present the LED companies are rapidly expanding production capacity, expand the Raiders. domestic LED industry leaders from the three security to expand production capacity optical Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics, to , LED industry investment boom is almost swept the entire industry.
now, the three largest security optical LED. Alliance is LED photoelectric veteran, longer than the LED encapsulation and application of a complete industrial chain. Silan longer than the LED chip. BDO Runda is cutting-edge, establish and improve industry chain to enter the LED.
three largest LED manufacturers announced in January this year, An optical ho throw 12.0 billion to establish LED base. Saman optical currently has 14 sets of international advanced MOCVD and related equipment, with annual output of 450,000 epitaxial wafers, chip production capacity of 15 billion.
is not only a three-safety optoelectronics, the global LED manufacturers are also in the expansion. A share listed companies, securities through electronics, Han's Laser, Yangtze Communications also recently announced an investment program for LED.
has completed the construction of Article 5 of the Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics LED production lines this year, in January proposed to additional fund-raising not more than 6 billion, with in the high-brightness LED chip production line expansion project and to supplement working capital. Among them, 1 February 2010, with the Wuhu municipal government began to chip project cooperation, to 60 billion bet LED optoelectronic industry. Yangtze Communications December 7 last year, with the Huangpi District Government intends to invest in Huangpi District Construction of central China's largest production base for LED lighting products, is expected to 2 billion yuan in sales revenue.
polysilicon industry will repeat the old
LED popular and historical situation seems similar to the original had reminiscent Crazy polysilicon and LCD panels. According to the China Electronic Materials Industry Association, a report from the State Development and Reform Commission, to the end of June 2009, China has 19 companies of polysilicon production projects, the scale of production capacity to 3 million tons / year, Another 10 enterprises in the construction, expansion of polysilicon with a total planned production capacity is expected in 2010 will exceed 10 million tons. polysilicon in 2008 the total demand in China was 1.7 million tons. These products can be realized if all, global demand will exceed more than 2 times the amount. polysilicon from the worries of overcapacity in the transition to reality.
Hong Yuan Jing energy industry, said chief researcher, in 2007 the country less than 1,000 tons of polysilicon actual output in 2008, annual production capacity of 1.5 million full- tons, while production capacity to 2010 soared to 10 million tons. polysilicon prices fall sharply the past two years also, which makes a lot of pain for listed companies, the investment has been down before, the results just came out, there was excess capacity , the price slump of the situation. Select number of listed companies had to ago.
have higher requirements, from 2007 to 2009, with the specifications of the LCD's prices fell by 50%, is behind the overcapacity In 2009 China's LCD market demand is 29 million units, while the actual output is twice that number.
next 3 to 5 of excess production capacity does not
without concern that the LED lighting applications because the output value last year, up to 600 billion yuan, up 33% in 2008, a single part of the profit of 30%; according displaysearch research, LED global demand this year will increase 26%, the market space huge number of listed companies attracted droves. Objectively speaking, the industry's market is very broad, but current domestic production of the manufacturers in the LED in the Warring States period, a melee. As a high threshold of LED technology, the core technology lies in the United States and Japan hands of listed companies in China engaged in more non-core technology, packaging and application stage, in addition to processing, the reason for the protection of intellectual property, mostly in the domestic production for sale, export ratio is very small. Although industry prospects, but the application of multi-national government procurement, not really into the civilian areas, so the market demand is very small. Even if the next market open, the foreign and China Taiwan region has been long involved in the production, mature technology, may be grab market opportunities. In particular, some technology stocks that have not listed, simply because blindly into the lucrative, and perhaps eventually fall before the market opens.
United News securities industry analyst at New Energy also believes that Huang Ping The market is huge, but the listed companies can make money, that depends on the ability of each of the. LED display technology is currently used in light, display, keypad, camera flash and the LCD backlight and other four areas, The most extensive lighting market is still not open. due to the current scale of production and technology immaturity, leading to price too high, the general population is difficult to accept. However, with government subsidies, and promote the application of the technology matures and its costs will certainly decrease. from the next 3 to 5 years, the current production capacity is not enough. He pointed out that all the proposed 1990 LED-related patents, to 2010, the effective patent term of 20 years, will gradually expire, the industrial structure of the original patent will be forced to adjust. the domestic strength of enterprise, certainly if we can seize the opportunity to rise rapidly, many listed companies are now flocking to also see this point. However, due to lack of previous technical reserves, More importantly, the rate of industry ahead of large-scale applications, a number of enterprises will fall early. (Source: Information Times)
listed companies have invested heavily to pound or overheated LED industry will be re-
do not know When, LED thing that catches people eyes, with the LED technology more widely, the rapid rise of a number of LED business, LED also known as sensitive sense of smell is also quick to reflect the capital market: Since last December to the beginning of this year, with three safety optoelectronics, Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics market trends as the leading LED plate strength, LED plate group is activated, BDO Runda, shares the same side, Linkage optoelectronics rebound before the Spring Festival have hit a new high. LED industry is developing rapidly so that most of the call alert bubble, whether listed companies spent heavily to gamble Why LED? LED status and prospects of the industry How?
spent heavily to pound on the LED
the LED business rapidly expanding production capacity, expand the Raiders. domestic LED industry, the three leading enterprises to expand production capacity of optical security of Silan and then to .
now, the three largest security optical LED, the Year is the LED optical veteran, longer than the joint creation and application of LED packaging, a complete industrial chain. Silan longer than the LED chip, a cutting-edge BDO Runda , establish and improve industry chain to enter the LED. Other LED enterprises also have expansion.
three largest LED manufacturers announced in January this year, An optical ho throw 12.0 billion to establish LED base. Third now has 14 sets of safety photoelectric advanced MOCVD and related equipment, with annual output of 450,000 epitaxial wafers, chip production capacity of 15 billion.
is not only a three-safety optoelectronics, the global LED manufacturers are also in expansion. A share listed companies, securities Electronics , Han's Laser, Yangtze Communications also recently announced an investment of LED.
has completed the construction of five LED product line and has an annual output of high-power blue LED chip production capacity of 400 million of Silan , prepared in January this year, additional funds raised to no more than 6 billion for high-brightness LED chip production line project of expansion and additional working capital.
Silan Deputy General Manager Chen Yue said: funding in place, 5 million will be put into LED. march, February 1, 2010, and began to chip project cooperation Wuhu city government, to 6.0 billion bet LED optoelectronic industry.
and scale can be ranked top three in the country. Construction of central China's largest production base for LED lighting products, is expected to 2 billion yuan in sales revenue.
TX Investment analyst Ho Yang Yang told reporters: In recent years, countries with more emphasis on energy conservation, industry increasingly commercialized, and gradually increase the size. Many listed companies have invested, currently three large-scale optical security. Following the fire and called incandescent lighting, after the third industrial revolution. With the start of semiconductor lighting, LED industry has become increasingly fast pace of development.
2009, LED market applications point of view, LED indicator , LED display, keypad and camera flash and the LCD backlight ranked the top four areas of sales.
It is understood that the formation of the global LED industry, the United States, Asia, Europe and the three pillars of the pattern. Japan and the U.S. relative to the leading technology Europe in the field of application has a comparative advantage. China and South Korea, Taiwan, the rapid rise of LED industry in recent years.
recent years, China's LED industry is faster than the global average. in the LED industry chain, the above substrate material Tour wafer production technology and the highest content, followed by the chip manufacturing. At present, the advantages of LED industry, mainly concentrated in relatively low-tech packaging ring development plan, the next 5 years, the domestic development of the upstream speed of the substrate and the chip will significantly beyond the downstream. At the same time, high brightness LED production and application of LED in China to gradually increase the proportion.
the market and technology orientation. rally.
public information, only the first half of 2009, around the country have launched LED total investment budget has more than 200 billion.
investment boom for LED BDO Runda Deputy General Manager Tang Fei told reporters:
public financing has become an urgent demand for LED enterprise development, non-governmental forces have also entered like a slice. According to statistics, in 2009, private capital actively involved in LED industry, the rapid growth of investment, investment involves the whole industry chain. In recent years, to venture capital for domestic enterprises to invest over 1.5 billion.
According to expert analysis, from the current projects under construction and planned statistical point of view, LED production capacity of at least the next three to five years overdraft capacity and markets. a large number of LED project is completed LED industry in China will result in lack of concentration, excess capacity, market disorderly competition, shortage of talent and other issues.
whether there is excess capacity
large, LED LCD TV in 2011 into a large-scale penetration stage of industrial applications, has production capacity of view, expansion bottleneck in the supply of receipt of the equipment, more optimistic downstream demand, overcapacity, or see again a year or two. br> Chen Yue said: upstream, midstream, downstream, and applications, the technical characteristics of each area and capital characteristics quite different, so there is some development of the imbalance.
excess risks appear. > 20 years of effective patent expiration of a wave of restructuring LED will be welcome?
LED current bottleneck of the development is the price, and determine the price of technology, the current multi-core technology of LED lighting industry for foreign controlled enterprises.
experts that, overall, China's LED technology with foreign countries there is a big gap between the need to address other issues blocking patents. In extension, microarray and the need to adhere to self-packaging technology innovation, and foreign still a gap. In addition, LED lighting industry standard is not clear.
the same time, some experts recently predicted that in 1990 all the proposed LED-related patents, to 2010, the effective patent term of 20 years will gradually expire, the existing structure will be industry patent forced to adjust.
in the middle and lower reaches of the packaging industry and patent applications in nearly 50%. and in the extension of the upstream and chip industry, due to late start of the research and production, the proportion of patents less.
In order to avoid patent issues, at this stage, including sub-Japan, Toyoda Gosei, Cree, Philips (Philips) and other European and Japanese major LED maker, began the journey in the manner authorized.
, patents reflect the company's R & D level, the future introduction of new products in the enterprise, industry more passive, less competitive. abroad in Japan, the United States, European Union patent each authorization form. The technology is still in the process of continuous improvement, do not rule out the emergence of new technology, new applications to expand and might break the competition.
patent expired in 2010, will be conducive to more manufacturers to enter, never off The new round of competition. Genuine LED ceiling lamp, LED lighting, OUR commitment pay off a ten