July 10, General Administration of Customs released the data: the first half of this year, the cumulative trade surplus of 99.03 billion U.S. dollars, down 11.8%, a net decrease of $ 13,210,000,000. Which, in June month of trade surplus of 21.35 billion U.S. dollars, down 20.6 %, a net decrease of $ 5,540,000,000. And in previously, the Commission issued an official proclamation declaring seamless steel pipe originating in China's anti-dumping investigation. The United States recently approved, worth more than $ 450,000,000 of Chinese exports to the U.S. pin up to 118% collection of tax.
According to statistics, China's economic dependence on foreign trade as high as 78%, which not only makes China's foreign trade into a frequency of friction, normalized vortex, but also will directly affect national economic security.
spiraling dependence on foreign trade dependence on foreign trade
high jump is a period of time a country or region's total foreign trade of the country or regional gross domestic product (GDP) of GDP. This indicator is usually reflect a country's domestic economy and international economic ties tightness.
20 century, 80 years, as China's economic integration process into the world economy, along with the rapid growth of foreign trade, China's foreign trade dependence has been increased dependence on foreign trade in China .1970 5.0%, increased to 12.9% in 1980, increased to 29.8% in 1990 and 2000, increased to 43.8%.
2001 年 12 months, China officially joined the World Trade Organization, China's foreign trade advantage of the opportunity to enter the rapid growth stage: global trade in 2004 rose to third in qualifying, foreign trade volume surpassed 1 trillion. During this period, China's dependence on foreign trade also experienced a rapid rise time, According to Commerce Department statistics, in 2002 51% dependence on foreign trade in 2003 was 60.2% in 2004 to 67%.
the end of 2007, China's annual import and export volume reached 2.1738 trillion U.S. dollars, the growth rate reached 23.1% Exports rose 26% to reach 1.221 trillion U.S. dollars; imports rose 20% to 946 billion U.S. dollars; annual trade surplus of 270 billion U.S. dollars. dependence on foreign trade has reached 78%, the highest since the country created.
addition, according to the import and export trade, foreign trade dependence can be divided into emphasis on export trade, processing trade, consequent to replace the traditional trade to become an important way to promote one of China's exports. However, in recent years with the further development of China's processing trade, processing trade, increasing concentration of industry-wide, such that the consumption of specific goods and resources, and imports risen dramatically, dependence increased significantly.
2004, China's crude oil imports reached 122.7 million tons, an increase of 34.8%, the first time exceeded 1 million tons mark .2006, China's crude oil imports reached 145.2 million tons, 14.2% increase over the previous year; 2007, China imported 163 million tons of crude oil, representing an increase of 12.4%.
present, China's oil import dependency is 35%, according to expert estimates, by 2020, China dependence on foreign oil will reach 60%, more than half of China's oil supply will depend on international supply.
then 60%, 70% or even 80% of what it means dependence on foreign trade?
statistics show that , from 2001 to 2007, the United States, Japan, India, Germany's foreign trade dependence generally stable at 16% -22% range. and China from the early 80s of last century 15% of the foreign trade dependence all the way to jump up, has been several times higher than other major developed countries and developing country levels.
According to statistics, clothing, China's export dependence on the U.S. market as high as 20.14%. concentrated in the export destination, the buyer in a strong position in the case of Once the main market place can not be expected to rely on a variety of variables, not only an important impact on China's foreign trade, but also directly affect China's domestic economic stability and development.
continued high dependence on foreign trade and the accompanying anti-dumping, that the international market capacity of Chinese products is almost the limit.
frequent trade disputes
high foreign trade dependence is a expanding China's exports encountered foreign anti-dumping and safeguard investigations increased significantly. According to statistics, Europe and the United States Anti-dumping involved more than 100 million U.S. dollars to have reached 15 cases. from China's accession to WTO, each directly involved amounted to more than one billion dollars, and are widely involved.
Trade Division, Ministry of Commerce data show that since the world every 7 1 in anti-dumping cases involving China, which makes our country for 11 years as anti-dumping investigations than any other country, every year About 40 billion to 50 billion U.S. dollars of exports affected.
In addition, anti-subsidy, green barriers,UGG bailey button, technical barriers and other issues have also become to deal with other countries and regions, the main form of our export products. This shows that ,UGG shoes, China's foreign trade development and increasing foreign trade dependency, has made China's foreign trade inevitably enter the era of international economic friction.
high dependence on foreign trade will stimulate trade with China and other countries of conflict, and issues such as China's exports of manufactured goods, 60% of foreign investment and joint ventures by the formation of export products, and the end products of these enterprises as the United States, Japan and other importing countries to consumption, but production of these products to foreign imports they are nothing but energy and raw materials account operator in China, many on the competition for resources, and promote criticism of raw materials prices also at China.
recent years, the United States on Chinese textile quotas 7, so 20 billion reduction in China 16 million dollars in exports and employment; the European Union on Chinese textile quotas 2, also affects over 300 million U.S. dollars of exports and the corresponding employment. overdependence on foreign trade, once the exports, domestic production and related businesses will be serious impact.
product pricing sidelined others
China's exports are mainly labor-intensive products (the proportion of labor-intensive products accounted for 70% of exports, including textiles and clothing accounted for 23% of exports), imports are mainly capital and technology intensive products.
Generally, the former's relatively high price elasticity of supply and demand, which is relatively low. This asymmetry of price elasticity of demand and supply in the capital and led to the import of technology-intensive products, China's imports dependent demand for the product is greater than the supply of other countries dependent on China.
Moreover, low prices of products foreign trade enterprises, making the loss of foreign trade enterprises in China commodity pricing.
Last year, China exported 5.3 billion pairs shoes (equivalent to everyone in the world production of a pair of shoes), but the profits of Chinese companies can get only 20% of total profits, with the remaining 80% have been developed brands and distribution channels received by manufacturers.
It statistics, due to price competition, from 1997 to 2007, Chinese exports to Southeast Asia market, the average ordinary motorcycle sold for $ 700, now only $ 170, the average profit of only $ 6 per vehicle around; Similarly, China's canned orange accounted for 60% of world market share for more than 10 years, but export prices fell by 2 / 3; of leather, rubber and plastic shoes, balls, umbrellas, bristle brush, hot water bottle size of 6 kinds of commodity exports increased by nearly 10 years 51%, but the combined average price declined by 21.7%, a lot of profit loss.
exports of manufactured goods although the proportion of total exports has more than 90%, but only 28% of high-tech products, while developed countries The proportion of generally more than 40%; from trade,UGG boots, China's major export is processing trade, and focused on low value-added processing and manufacturing areas.
an economist at Morgan Stanley in accordance with the statement, China only just got a little bread crumbs. In China, the lack of competitiveness of local enterprises and gradually forced into the world of low value-added low-end value chain, while foreign investment in China has occupied a very high value-added exports of high-end value chain . It seems that China is the world but to provide cheap labor, cheap land, with low environmental standards, low standards of social responsibility, the production base.
the same time, imports of high-tech products, China has profits suffer the ravages of foreign enterprises.
Last year, the ninth in Shenzhen China Hi-Tech Fair, China CCCME Yao Wenping, vice president of high-tech trade have expressed concern: product is still a seller's market, not the buyer's market. just need to keep advanced technology, China will always be our gold market. One of the most inexpensive, the largest transfer station. This is probably China as a continental economy, but the extraordinarily high dependence on foreign trade are the reasons behind the incomparable.
trade surplus dream
prepared yellow beam economic dependence on foreign trade Up to 78%, 76% of the United States, Japan, 85% on domestic consumption. and more and more examples of proof, the Great State must expand domestic demand only the driving force of economic growth, because the big country's economic development can not always count on the international market to absorb excess capacity.
United States, Japan is the world's largest economy and trading power, but the dependence on foreign trade between the two countries in 2007 but were only 21.3% and 19.6%, not only below the world average, but lower than most developed countries. low dependence on foreign trade between the two countries and their own characteristics has a close relationship.
service-oriented industrial structure is the leading developed countries, an important factor in the low dependence on foreign trade. In developed countries, GDP, composition of the three industries, service industries accounted for the major share of 78% in 2007 the United States, Japan reach 69%.
While many economists free trade for China's great achievements while intoxicated, the World Bank and the International Monetary The IMF released a new study has poured cold water take the lead.
the conclusion of this study are: poverty in poor countries is not due to lack of free trade, because the poor countries dependence on foreign trade is far more than 40% mm much higher than the average level of rich countries. This is to say, extremely high dependence on foreign trade shows, may not be the level of development of trade in this country, but the extent of poverty in this country.
In addition,cheap UGG boots, the huge trade surplus, so that China faces increasing international pressure. As of 5 at the end of 2008, the Chinese foreign exchange reserve amounted to $ 1,796,960,000,000. unbalance of international payments, foreign exchange reserves grew too fast, so that further increase the pressure of RMB appreciation, monetary liquidity pressures.
the depreciation of the dollar will lead to China's dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves and invested in U.S. Treasury bonds fell sharply in foreign exchange assets, the foreign exchange assets have suffered huge losses. In addition, China's current foreign exchange settlement system, foreign exchange reserves grow too inevitably lead to fast a corresponding increase in the amount of foreign exchange, resulting in base money and broad money (M2) of the large number of running. the central bank had to issue a large number of bills to raise deposit reserve to raise interest rates, recovery of liquidity, foreign exchange increased consumer impulse of base money and inflation pressures. This has seriously affected the independence of monetary policy in China.
China's unique system has such a feature: it can be the pressure of global economic competition and the inward transfer of the transfer to it of the subaltern , and at the national level to maintain a strong image. one in secret, a long life of the people in Western countries is difficult to understand. Therefore, in China with strong indicators of a variety of clouds attracted viewers, and won again and breathtaking, it may actually be performing a magic in the. However, in a dazzling oriental martial arts through, we have begun to gradually reveal the biggest flaws, and that is: we have a surprisingly large population and the bottom A group of local companies uncompetitive.
This is what we in the global picture of the back, to see another Chinese.
of: Liu Chi
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